CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T18:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36088/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen as a faint leading edge without much overflowing material behind the leading edge, seen to the south and southeast in SOHO LASCO and east-southeast in STEREO A COR2. Likely associated with an eruption from AR3939 near S18E15 seen as quickly breaking field lines near the active region seen best in GOES SUVI 131, 195, 284, 304. The attached WSA-Enlil+Cone simulation should not be interpreted as a forecast and is likely to overestimate geomagnetic impacts at Earth given that the measurement represents the faint shock associated with the CME, which does not contain much observed material behind the leading edge.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-02T10:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-01T19:21Z (-6.23h, +4.36h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/12/29 18:00Z Plane of Sky 1: 01:00Z; 24Rsun; SSE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 01:50Z; 24Rsun; NNW Direction POS Difference: 00:50 POS Midpoint: 01:25Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:25 Numeric View/Impact Type: 4 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.89 Travel Time: ~9.89 * 7:25 = 73:21 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-01T19:21Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh Forecast Creation Time: 2024/12/30 02:10ZLead Time: 79.88 hour(s)
Difference: 14.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-12-30T02:12Z
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